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Breaking Poll Update

 A recent poll from a professional firm conducted on the upcoming GOP primary for Cecil County Executive confirms what we already knew- this is a winnable race. Highlights  • My positive name ID among likely Republican voters is exceptionally high (32%)  • Alan McCarthy’s negative name ID among likely Republican voters is exceptionally high (25%) • […]

 A recent poll from a professional firm conducted on the upcoming GOP primary for Cecil County Executive confirms what we already knew- this is a winnable race.

Highlights 

• My positive name ID among likely Republican voters is exceptionally high (32%) 

• Alan McCarthy’s negative name ID among likely Republican voters is exceptionally high (25%)

• Ewing McDowell and Bill Coutz are relatively unknown among likely Republican voters 

• The top-line ballot test shows an increasingly narrowing race between incumbent Alan McCarthy (26.2%) and myself (20.4%). The other two candidates are in the single digits.

Executive Summary 

A poll conducted of 300 likely Republican primary voters shows an increasingly narrowing race in the contest for Cecil County Executive between myself and tax-raising Alan McCarthy. The poll was conducted between February 4 and February 6 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.77%. 

In a straight ballot test of the Republican primary candidates, McCarthy is showing to be in a significantly worse place than an incumbent should be at this point in the race. His narrow lead is equal to the margin of error, signifying that we are statistically tied. I am able to stand out among the three challengers, and will continue to present a strong challenge to McCarthy in the coming weeks. 

McCarthy – 26.2% Hornberger – 20.4%
Coutz – 5.7% McDowell – 5.3% Undecided – 41.3% 

McCarthy’s vulnerabilities are evident in the level of negative sentiment with which Republican voters receive him. Only 60% of Likely Republican Voters have heard of McCarthy enough to form an opinion of him. And of those who have, nearly half have a negative opinion of him. 

Name ID: Alan McCarthy 

Heard of / Favorable – 34.6% Heard of / Unfavorable – 25.0% Heard of / No Opinion – 19.6% Never Heard Of – 20.5% 

Name ID: Danielle Hornberger 

Heard of / Favorable – 32.2% Heard of / Unfavorable – 10.5% Heard of / No Opinion – 23.2% Never Heard Of – 33.9% 

My positive name ID is essentially equal to McCarthy’s, yet my negative name ID is significantly lower. 

As the campaign progresses, McCarthy’s negatives are likely to increase as voters become more familiar with his tax and spend policies.

My strengths as a challenger are underscored by the struggles of McDowell and Coutz to reach voters. 58.5% of likely Republican voters have “never heard of” Bill Coutz. Similarly, 55.3% of voters have “never heard of” Ewing McDowell. 

Our campaign’s organization and message are clearly effective and resonating with voters.  As my war-chest continues to grow and I am able to connect with more Cecil residents, we should expect my poll numbers to continue to climb. 

Lastly, 78% of likely Republican primary voters say that they are “more likely” to support a candidate who is closely aligned with President Trump.  I have been doing so from the get-go, complete with my spot on the ballot chosen by the Trump campaign as a Trump Delegate to the RNC.

While the data from this poll is encouraging, this is no time to let our campaign coast.  In the final two months before the April 28th Republican primary, we need to continue spreading our message of lower taxes, smaller government, and preserving Cecil’s rural character.  I cannot win this election without your help.  The support we have received for this campaign already has been humbling; and I hope I can count on you to help me spread the word and win.
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